The charge on both Chance and Tor’s tags was very low on the last transmission before they went 'missing’. We hope that like Tor’s, Chance’s tag will resume transmissions once it has been exposed to sunlight after he moves to a new location. If it does not, it is most likely that the battery completely discharged during the period that it was not charging sufficiently to transmit and subsequently perished. In previous years, the tracked cuckoos have mostly died during the main spring and autumn migrations between Europe and Africa, rather than during the mid-winter period, so battery failure would seem more likely than Chance dying during the period that his tag was uncharged.

We still have yet to hear news from either Chance or Tor, who had been in a similar area of dense cover close to the Gabon/Congo border, when their tags last transmitted. 

If their respective batteries have not been receiving enough solar charge to power them over a long period of time there is a possibility that the battery may degrade and not be able to power up again. However, if they have been receiving some small charge during this time, though not enough to send a transmission, then once exposed to enough light, transmissions should start back up again. We continue to hope that like David, who went over 6 weeks without a tag transmission but recently re-emerged, Chance and Tor may reappear if and when they move northwards. 

Still no news from Chance. However, despite not hearing from him since early December we haven’t given up on him. The last transmission showed that the tag temperature was as expected if he was alive; however, the battery charge was extremely low, so low that the tag must have stopped transmitting immediately afterwards. 

The latest transmissions from Ken's tag show that he remains in Gabon, having arrived here on 25 October, and it's likely he will spend Christmas here.

This is also the last country from which we received a transmission from Scottish Cuckoo, Chance, in early December.  We haven't heard from him since but, there could be a number of reasons for this, including the fact that the dense cover of vegetation could be stopping the solar-powered tag from receiving enough light to charge up and transmit a signal.

Interestingly, Tor, one of our Devon Cuckoos also last transmitted from this area at the end of November, although from slightly further south within Congo, and his tag has also yet to beam another signal to us. Many of our Cuckoos have had periods where they have 'dissapeared' for a period of time before reappearing, often having moved quite substantial distances as part of their migration, having spent time feeding up beforehand. We will have to wait and see whether further transmissions reveal more information.  

Chance has moved roughly 150 km (95 miles) south-west from his first location in Gabon, away from the Teke Plateau area and is now to the west of this. Recent movements from other Cuckoos arriving in this area suggest that conditions may not be so good in the area this year as in previous years and this may explain Skinner's southerly movement to Angola.

Over the weekend, Chance has moved south from Nigeria to Gabon, covering a total of about 1320km (820 miles), as he crossed over Cameroon and ventured further south-east. Signals late last night and early this morning show he is now in the Haut-Ogooue region of east Gabon and is now in the Congo Rainforest, where he will spend the winter. 

Two of our Scottish-tagged Cuckoos, BB and Chance, from 2012 are currently in the most northerly locations of those we are following this year. BB remains in Chad, while Chance is still in Nigeria.

Chance did make a move south, almost reaching Nigeria's border with Cameroon, but for some reason retreated in a north-westerly direction again. He is currently just south of Gombe. By mid-October last year, he was further south, in Cameroon, but didn't move again until the beginning of November, when he journeyed to the Téké Plateau – the area of savanna and gallery forest in central Congo.. Will we see him do the same again in the next couple of weeks?  

As for BB, last winter he spent from 17 September to 4 December in the same area as his current locaion in Chad, before then moving south to theTéké Plateau. If he does the same again this year, it may be a while before we see any further movements.

In addition to BB and Chance, this wintering area was also used by four of the Cuckoos tagged in East Anglia in the first year of the project , who spent winter of 2011/12 in the Téké Plateau, with the exception being Chris who each year has wintered in the Likouala-aux-herbes area, where he is currently. Last year, our English Cuckoos fared badly on their southward migration and Chris was the only East Anglian Cuckoo to make it to his wintering grounds. It will be interesting to see how many move south to winter in the Téké Plateau this year.

From the shores of Lake Chad on 2 October, Chance moved south-west and by 7 October was 330km (200 miles) from the lake. He is 90km (55 miles) from the city of Maiduguri which is the capital and the largest city of Borno State in north-eastern Nigeria. 

By the early hours of 10 September Chance had travelled the final 70km (45 miles) or so and was on the shores of Lake Chad. About 80km (50 miles) separate him and fellow Scottish-tagged Cuckoo, Patch, who is on the other side of the lake. 

Chance has travelled a further 96km (59 miles) in a south-easterly direction, still heading towards Lake Chad but he has a little more distance to cover before reaching it. He is currently very close to his location on August 15 last year, where shortly after crossing the desert he turned eastwards and made straight for Lake Chad, spending a few weeks in and around the nearby area.

Since the last positions received on 31 August, Chance has started to head east, in the direction of Lake Chad. By early evening of 2 September he had travelled 280km (175 miles) and was 115km (75 miles) from the edge of the lake. Will he continue onwards and spend some time here again this year? 

Chance is currently the most northerly of all the tagged Cuckoos within Africa. He has moved only a small distance from the location he arrived in after crossing the desert. Last year he moved to Lake Chad after a matter of days so we are assuming that because he has yet to move on, conditions in the area must be favourable at the moment. 

A series of poor quality locations were received from Chance's tag on 8 August which revealed that Chance had left Germany and was crossing over Libya but it wasn't until 11 August that we received a good location for him to confirm that he had made it to Africa. From the location within Libya he had carried on another 1330km (830 miles), successfully completing his desert crossing and making it to the zinder region of south Niger.  

This is very similar to Chance's movements last year, with him transmitting from north Niger on 10 August 2012. After this he moved east to Chad and spent some time near Lake Chad. Will he do the same this year?  

Signals received on the 2 July show that Chance had left Scotland and was just 60km (40 miles) southwest of Berlin. He had flown 1200km (750 miles) from a location  just west of Stirling, Scotland, to a location near Treuenbrietzen, a town the Bundesland of Brandenburg, in eastern Germany.

BB and Chance both remain in the area around Loch Katrine, Trossachs National park, that they were tagged in last year.

Transmissions from the last few days show that all four Cuckoos which have returned to their breeding grounds are still in their respective areas. They are likely to remain in and around these areas looking for breeding opportunities for at least the next month.We now assume Lloyd has perished in Morocco as there is no reason for him to remain in his current position for so long. Last year, the earliest Cuckoo to leave the UK was Chris, on the 11 June, while David and BB left on 18 and Chance on the 22 June. Wallace, one of the birds tagged in Scotland last year, was the last to leave, transmitting from outside the UK on 23 July, just one day later than the last bird, Lyster, in 2011. 

Just a few miles now separate Chance and BB, who are both in the area of Loch Katrine. The weather in Scotland has been less favourable than in the south but it is currently sunny and pleasant though wet conditions are forecast over the next few days. 

The sensor data on Chance’s tag indicated that he was actively migrating when he was recorded in Northumberland late on 25 April. By Sunday morning (28 April) he was back on the south shores of Loch Katrine, in the Trossachs National Park in the southern Highlands of Scotland, approximately 1.6km (1 mile) east of the location at which he was caught in May last year. He is the first of our tracked Cuckoos back at his tagging site this year, although Chris would no doubt have made it some time ago had he not apparently opted to stay and breed in France. 

New transmissions sent late last night revealed that Chance was the first Cuckoo to have returned to the UK. His location was 40km (25 miles) north-west of Newcastle upon Tyne and just 2km (just over a mile) south of the village of Wark on Tyne. He has covered 763km (474 miles) from his position in France on 23 April and is now just over 170km (100 miles) away from Loch Katrine, where he was first tagged.

A location received at lunchtime on 23 April showed that Chance in in France. He is around 50km (30 miles) south-east of the port city of St Malo. He is now closer to the UK than Chris, and could be the first tagged Cuckoo back. He has travelled almost 700km (400 miles) from his last location south of the Pyrenees. His map will update tomorrow morning.

Locations received this morning show that Chance remains in the foothills of the Pyrenees. He has now been there for three days, despite conditions having been good for onward migration. He may need to rest and refuel before continuing his migration – it will be interesting to see how long he stays here before moving on. Currently, three of our tracked cuckoos are in Spain, with David and BB both further west than any of the other tracked cuckoos have been recorded in Europe. 

Having been in the latter stages of his desert crossing early on Tuesday morning, we had expected Chance to have moved into Spain by the time of the next transmissions due on Saturday (13 April). A series of locations received throughout that day showed that he had indeed done that, progressing a further 1135km (705 miles) N and stopping in the northern part of Aragon region, in the foothills of the Pyrenees. It is interesting that he has reached the central part of the mountains, with no indication of him attempting to go around one side or the other. Based on what we saw last spring and so far this spring from Chris, the speed at which he progresses from here back to Britain may depend on how favourable weather conditions are. Over the past two days, they do appear to have been favourable so it will be interesting to see where he is when his tag starts transmitting again this evening. 

Chance could still be next to make the desert crossing but at the moment unconfirmed signals suggest he is still in the Ivory Coast. 

None of the Cuckoos began crossing the Sahara, as anticipated, over the Easter weekend but we still expect them to make a move soon. Stay tuned for further updates when we get news of any movements. 

Having spent a month in eastern Ghana, by Sunday morning (24 March) Chance had moved 420km (416 miles) west to a location in Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast). He is 40km (24 miles) north of the location that Martin spent 18 days preparing for his Sahara crossing at this time last year, and about 20km (12 miles) south of Comoé NP. As Chance has already spent some time at a stop-over in Ghana, we would expect him to spend less time in this area than Martin did. If timings are similar to last year, we would expect the first bird to head north over the desert during Easter weekend. 

As of 13 March, David was still in Cameroon. Other locations received confirm that Lloyd has not moved from his position in the Democratic Republic of Congo and that Chance remains north of Lake Volta, Ghana.

Transmissions received yesterday morning show that Chance is still in Ghana and has moved closer to Lake Volta again. Ha has travelled roughly 50km (32 miles) north-west from his last position and appears to be on a narrow river-like section, 42km (26 miles) north of the previous location beside the Lake.

We have received several locations for Chance dotted around the north of Lake Volta in Ghana, the most recent of which was on 2 March. Last year Kasper spent around 3 weeks in this area while Lyster spent just over a week. Both left the area around mid-March 2012.  

Having been in Cameroon for 2 weeks, new locations received for Chance in the early hours of this morning (25 February) showed he was in Ghana! The best location placed him 67km (41 miles) E of Yegi, a major crossing point on the Volta, although subsequent locations and sensor data suggest that he was probably still moving westwards at that time. This is a movement of more than 1500km (935 miles) almost due west and makes Chance the first of the tagged cuckoos to have arrived in the Ghana/ Ivory Coast region, which all remaining cuckoos used as a pre-Sahara crossing stop-over last spring. 

Chance, whose tag last transmitted on the 12 February, is still in the central region of Cameroon. Chance and David are now both in Cameroon, separated by 280km (174 miles).

Chris, BB and Lloyd have still yet to begin their northwards movements and have all transmitted, from the same positions, in the last few days. Given the pattern seen so far, we may expect to lose transmissions for a few days as they feed up before they then make their move north. 

There have been no further transmissions from David since the 2 February, just after his big move, however the tag charge was low then. Hopefully it may receive some sunlight soon and charge up enough to transmit his current location. Chance is about 270km (168 miles) away from David's last known location. 

After an absence of a week, yesterday afternoon we received a location for Chance suggesting he had moved 925km (575 miles) NNE into Central African Republic. This is surprising as we would expect him to move north west at this time of year, like David did  a week ago and all the tracked Cuckoos did last year. Although the accuracy of the location was apparently good, we can't verify whether he has in fact moved there because of the possibility that this is a 'mirror location'. The satellite system always produces two possible locations for a tag based on the signals received as a satellite passes overhead and usually, but not always, selects the most sensible one. The alternative location for Chance based on this satellite pass is in Cameroon and makes more sense to us, but until we receive further locations for Chance’s tag, we won’t be able to say for sure. Make sure you check back to see where he next transmits from! 

(Chance's position was updated from Central African Republic to Cameroon. See the later blog post for more information.)

BB's tag transmitted on the 29 January while Chance's tag sent locations in the early hours of this morning which show that they remain just a few miles apart - possibly as few as two miles.

Further signals in the last couple of days reveal that BB and Chance are now only 4km (2.5 miles) apart from each other – that’s closer than when they were first tagged at either end of Loch Katrine in The Trosssachs National Park in Scotland! From transmissions received yesterday, BB appears to have travelled 2km (just over a mile) to the west, while transmissions today show Chance has moved 2km north and then 1km east of his previous location.  They are so close now that you have to really zoom in on the map to be able to see both markers.

Transmissions on 11 January show that Chance was in Gabon but a new position from the afternoon of 13 January revealed that he had moved 130km (80 miles) NE and had hopped over the border to join BB, our other Scottish-tagged Cuckoo and Chris, our remaining English-tagged Cuckoo, in Congo.

BB had recently moved north of his previous position and with Chance’s new movement, this has brought them very close together, no further than 20km (12 miles) but possibly within 7.5km (5 miles) or even closer - unfortunately the accuracy of the locations wasn't great enough to know for sure. 

Chance has travelled about 131km (81 miles) to the north-east of his location in Gabon. He is now on the border between the the Cuvette-Ouest and Cuvette regions of Congo. Chance and BB have moved to the first block of continuous forest to the north of the grassland - gallery forest mosaics of the Teke Plateau and are now only 100km (62 miles) from Chris to their north-east.

Chance, Lloyd, David and Chris all remain in their previous positions according to locations received in the last two days.  

So far in 2013, we have heard from four of the five remaining Cuckoos. We received tag transmissions from Chris and Chance today and from Lloyd and David yesterday showing there had been no substantial movements to report.

However, we haven’t heard from BB since the 30 December - at this stage this is nothing to worry about, though, as at this time last year we regularly went longer than this without hearing from the Cuckoos. A combination of poor charging conditions and a gradual decline in battery charge mean that they are transmitting less often, whilst as they are within the forest interference from trees reduces the chances of transmissions being picked up by satellites. Once they move on, or the weather at their current locations improves, we should start to receive positions more regularly again. 

We received a transmission from Chance's tag on the afternoon of the 29 December confirming he was still in the same location. We expect further transmissions soon. 

Transmissions received from Chance's tag in the early hours of this morning show that he is still in Gabon. He is roughly 25km (16 miles) west from the border with Congo.  BB, the only other remaining Scottish-tagged Cuckoo, is the closest to his position, around 100 km (60 miles) to the southeast.

Now that BB has moved south, the five Cuckoos that we are still tracking all appear to be at, or close to, their final wintering locations. Although we can’t draw firm conclusions from such small numbers, the Scottish-tagged Cuckoos are wintering in the same area as the Cuckoos tagged in England (bar Chris) did last winter. The two Welsh Cuckoos are further to the east. This is really interesting but whether it reflects general differences in the wintering areas used by the different breeding populations will need to be confirmed by the results of further tracking work in the coming years.

Chance was still in Cameroon on 7 November, having been there since 16 October. He has, however, moved rapidly south since then and by the evening of Friday 9 November, he was on the western edge of the Teke Plateau in eastern Gabon. This is a movement of 985km (611 miles) just east of due South within two days. 

There are currently just five tagged Cuckoos from which we are still receiving regular transmissions. While BB, LLoyd and David have all transmitted in the last couple of days, none of them have moved from their previous positions. Chris's tag transmitted on 7 November and showed he had made a small movement south of about 34km (21 miles), taking him closer to the Ubangi river. Chance also seems to have made a small movement recently and is now south-west of the Faro Reserve and only 54km (34 miles) from the border with Nigeria. 

BB is still in Chad, with a transmission received late last night, while Chance’s tag transmitted the day before, on the evening of 30 October, from Cameroon. About 572km (355 miles) separate Chance and BB from each other.  

Chance was the most northerly of all the Cuckoos from which we are still receiving regular transmissions. However, movements early this morning show that he has moved from his location north of Lake Chad and travelled south into Cameroon.  He covered around 686km (426 miles) south to a location close to the edge of the Mbang Mountain region before moving 80km (50 miles) back north, presumably in search of better conditions. 

BB and Chance remain in Chad and have transmitted in the last couple of days. Chance is still in the vicinity of Lake Chad while BB is further south. 

There have been no movements of note from our Cuckoos in the last few days. Transmissions have been received from Indy and Chance today and Lloyd, David, Wallace, Roy, BB and Chris in the last few days. Hopefully there will be more to report after the weekend! 

Locations received from Chance on 4 September show that Chance remains east of Lake Chad. 

Recent transmissions showed Chance leaving the vicinity of Lake Chad but a series of locations received early on 30 August showed that Chance was moving NW at that time. He stopped 28km (17 miles) SW of Massakory, having moved 91km (56 miles) from his previous position. By Saturday 1 September he had moved another 66km (41 miles) NW to an area at the north-eastern corner of the seasonally flooded extent of Lake Chad, close to his previous position near the lake.

We believe that the transmission depicted to the east is incorrect and that Chance remained in the area east of Lake Chad. Further transmissions on 22, 23, 25 and 27 August show him 155km (95 miles) southeast of the Lake, and his previous position.

A single location received for Chance this morning (20^th August) placed him in south-eastern Chad 30km north of David’s position. Although this single location appeared to be a good quality fix it may have been erroneous, as two other unconfirmed locations received for the period immediately after this one placed him much closer to his previous location and just east of Lake Chad. It seems more likely that Chance has remained in the vicinity of Lake Chad rather than having moved 670km (415 miles) ESE as shown on the map but we will have to wait until Wednesday to find out. 

On 31 July Chance was still at his location south of Berlin but by Sunday 5 August unconfirmed signals (which won't update on the map) suggest he had moved to a new location 557km (346 miles) to the SE in Austria. This places him in hill-country with extensive forest patches 36km (22 miles) north of Graz. Given the amount of time he spent near Berlin, Chance may not spend too much time preparing for onward migration here.

Having still been in north-eastern France on Wednesday, by first thing this morning John had moved 290km (180 miles) due S. His new location is just west of the south end of the Jura Mountains 32km (20 miles) NNW of Oyonnax and 61k (38 miles) NW of Geneva. As he moves into southern Europe, he leaves Chance (still south of Berlin according to an confirmed location received Thursday – his tag is not charging well and we might expect him to move south soon) and Wallace (still near Troon on Wednesday evening) as our only Cuckoos (excluding Idemili) left in northern Europe.

With the exception of Roy, there has been little recent movement by the Cuckoos tagged in Scotland - Wallace remains in Ayrshire; BB remains in north-eastern Italy; Mungo remains in Switzerland close to Mont Blanc; Chance remains just south of Berlin.

115602 finally has a name and will now be known as Chance. He has been named after Edgar Chance,  a British ornithologist noted for his pioneering studies on the breeding behaviour of the Common Cuckoo.

Locations received on 22 June proved to be accurate as they showed Chance heading across the North Sea towards Germany. He transmitted later that day from just inside Germany, between Itzehoe and Elmshorn, close to the river river Elbe 44km (27miles) of Hamburg, Germany. Since then he has travelled a further 300km (189 miles) across Germany on a south-easterly trajectory and by lunchtime on the 24 June was settled in a wooded area near Gottsdorf in eastern Germany, 35km (21 miles) SSW of Berlin.

On the 19 June Chance the Cuckoo was still at Flanders Moss NNR but on the morning of 22 June we received locations indicating that he was probably heading across the North Sea towards Germany – watch this space for more information!

Caught near Stronachlachar, Loch Katrine, Stirling on 15 May 2012, Cuckoo 115602 is a one-year old male. Since his satellite tag was fitted he has remained around the shores of Loch Katrine.