Citation
Overview
In this report we show how climate change is already impacting the UK’s birds. Our internationally important breeding seabird populations and unique assemblage of upland breeding birds are already negatively affected and appear most vulnerable to future change. Many southern species and widespread resident species are increasing in response to warmer temperatures.
Overall, a quarter of our breeding species appear to be negatively affected and a quarter may be responding positively; the remaining breeding species that have been studied appear relatively unaffected by climate change. There are significant gaps in our knowledge for other species, notably our wintering bird populations.
In more detail
Background
An increasing body of research demonstrates the impacts of climate change on bird species across the globe, revealing a suite of responses. The timing of bird breeding and of migration have both become earlier. These shifts in timing have averaged one to three days per decade. Climate change is driving a consistent poleward shift in the distribution of bird species, the rate of change exceeding 11 km per decade.
Globally, bird population declines have been greatest where warming has been most rapid. Climate change is driving large-scale shifts in bird communities across the globe, and we are seeing a consistent simplification of bird communities as they become more similar to each other. Migratory bird populations are declining widely around the world and migratory birds may be particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change. Scientific evidence is required for robust decision making to maximise win–win solutions for climate change mitigation, adaptation and nature. Long-term monitoring is needed to ensure such interventions are successful.
What we did
We assess the impact that climate change has already had on UK bird populations by relating their long-term trends to separately published species’ responses to climate change, temperature and rainfall. We summarise the results of different climate change vulnerability assessments to provide the most comprehensive synthesis of the likely future impacts of climate change on UK birds to date. We highlight examples where large-scale climate mitigation has the potential to transform landscapes with significant impacts on birds and where conservation action may also help species adapt to climate change.
What we found
Within the UK, breeding seabirds and upland breeding birds are the two groups most vulnerable to climate change. Fourteen seabird species are regarded as being at risk of negative climate change impacts. These include Puffin, for which a population decline across Britain and Ireland of 89% is projected by 2050. Conversely, climate change appears to be contributing to population increases and expansion in breeding waterbirds, including species colonising from continental Europe. Southerly-distributed waterbirds, coastal species and heathland species* are those most likely to benefit from climate change.
Tendencies for upland birds and seabirds to decline may be related to their more negative responses to warming temperature, whilst positive impacts of temperature change may contribute to increases in wetland and non-native species. Climate change has been one of the two most important drivers of breeding population changes since the 1970s.
Populations of one third of common and widespread breeding bird species fluctuate with temperature and rainfall*. Warmer spring temperatures can increase breeding success whilst a reduction in winter severity has boosted annual survival of many resident species. Populations of long-distance migrants vary with conditions in Africa where they winter, and generally benefit from wet rainy seasons there. Warming in the UK, contrasted with mixed rainfall trends in Africa, has contributed to divergent breeding population trends between resident and migratory bird species.
We lack information about the extent to which climate change might be driving population trends for 132 (55%) of our breeding bird species and for most of our wintering birds. It is essential that we address these important knowledge gaps.
